Crypto Markets Show Signs of Stabilization Amid Improving Sentiment and On-Chain Signals

On-Chain Data Points to Accumulation

Ethereum Sees Long-Term Holders Strengthen Position

Macro Risks Still Shape Market Direction

Crypto Markets Show Signs of Stabilization Amid Improved Sentiment

April 10, 2026

In a promising turn for the beleaguered cryptocurrency markets, recent research from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode suggests that a stabilization phase may be on the horizon. As improving investor sentiment and robust on-chain signals emerge, analysts are cautiously optimistic about a potential near-term bottom for digital assets.

The first quarter of 2026 saw total crypto market capitalization—excluding stablecoins—plummet by 18%, reflecting the ongoing pressure on digital assets. However, the stablecoin supply increased from $308 billion to $318 billion during the same period, indicating that while some capital has exited the market, many investors are biding their time, waiting for clearer signals before reinvesting.

Shifting Sentiment in Bitcoin

Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, has experienced a notable shift in investor sentiment. Glassnode’s data reveals that the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric has transitioned from a phase of fear to one of optimism. This shift is underscored by a survey indicating that 75% of institutional investors and 71% of retail investors now view Bitcoin as undervalued, suggesting that the potential for further downside may be diminishing.

On-Chain Data Points to Accumulation

Several on-chain indicators support a more constructive outlook for Bitcoin. Over the past three months, the supply of Bitcoin moved dropped by 37%, while the supply held for over a year increased by 1%. This trend typically reflects a decrease in speculative trading and a growing conviction among long-term holders.

Moreover, Bitcoin’s profitability metrics indicate that the asset is currently in an accumulation zone. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) framework and supply-in-profit data suggest that valuations are nearing historically favorable levels. Additionally, the Puell Multiple has fallen to 0.7, indicating that miner revenues are below long-term averages—a condition often associated with market bottoms.

Ethereum Strengthens Amid Market Challenges

Ethereum, while lagging behind Bitcoin in performance, is also showing signs of structural improvement. The supply held for less than three months declined by 38% in the first quarter, while long-term holdings increased by 1%. This shift indicates that weaker hands are exiting the market, allowing more patient investors to strengthen their positions.

Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric is nearing a transition from capitulation to hope, suggesting that sentiment may be stabilizing after a period of heavy selling. Analysts emphasize that Ethereum’s future cycles may increasingly depend on utility and adoption rather than speculative trading, particularly as regulatory clarity and long-term network demand improve.

Macro Risks Continue to Loom

Despite these encouraging technical signals, macroeconomic conditions remain a significant factor influencing market direction. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has risen to 0.58, highlighting its growing sensitivity to broader market risks. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and potential oil disruptions continue to cloud growth expectations.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global GDP growth forecast for 2026 down to 3.1%, from 3.4%. Some private forecasts warn that growth could slow to as low as 1.4% if energy shocks worsen, which could further limit aggressive positioning in the crypto markets.

Looking Ahead

As the crypto landscape evolves, analysts are keeping a close eye on two internal themes: the progress of the CLARITY Act and advancements in post-quantum cryptography protections. Both developments could significantly influence market structure in the medium term.

In summary, while the crypto markets face ongoing challenges, the emerging signs of stabilization and improved sentiment may pave the way for a potential recovery as we move further into the second quarter of 2026. Investors are urged to remain vigilant as they navigate this complex and rapidly changing environment.