Key Takeaways

Senate delays have reduced confidence in the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law. Galaxy Digital now sees passage odds at 50-50 amid limited public progress in negotiations. Leadership action in July could revive momentum, while continued silence may weaken prospects.

Senate Calendar Pressures Weigh on CLARITY Act Passage Outlook

Senate scheduling pressure has narrowed the CLARITY Act’s path as Senate floor time grows more crowded ahead of the August recess. Alex Thorn, Managing Director and Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, published a research note on June 26, lowering his 2026 passage estimate to 50-50.

Legislation has remained on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423 since June 1, after the Senate Banking Committee approved it 15-9 on May 14. No floor date has been announced, no motion to proceed has been scheduled, and no unified Banking-Agriculture text has been released.

Thorn revealed:

“We are lowering our estimate that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 50-50, down from 60% on June 5.”

Staff-level talks continue between the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, with some indications of constructive negotiations. Still, there has been no public announcement of agreement on a combined bill, and lawmakers have not signaled a floor timeline.

Ethics provisions remain a central unresolved issue after Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) saw his conflict-of-interest amendment fail 11-13 in committee. Senators Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Cory Booker (D-NJ) continue to seek enforceable standards, while illicit-finance hawks want changes to developer-protection language.

Trump’s Housing Bill Standoff Further Crowds Senate Schedule

Senate competition intensified after President Donald Trump said June 24 that he would not sign a bipartisan housing bill unless Congress passed the SAVE Act, a proof-of-citizenship elections bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has said the SAVE Act lacks the votes to pass the Senate.

Housing legislation had already passed the House 358-32 and the Senate 85-5, but Thorn described Trump’s condition as another leadership-consuming fight. The dispute joins a crowded agenda as lawmakers approach the scheduled August recess.

Thorn said:

“A scheduling announcement in the next two weeks would likely push us back toward 60% or higher. Continued silence into mid-July would push us lower.”

Congress also faces other time-sensitive priorities. A bipartisan proposal from Senators Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Tom Cotton (R-AR), and Mark Warner (D-VA) to restore Section 702 surveillance authorities still requires Senate floor time, while lawmakers must also consider the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act before the recess.

Thorn said his outlook would improve if Senate committees publicly agreed on combined legislative text, negotiators resolved outstanding ethics and Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act issues, and Senate leadership committed floor time in July. He added that he continues to expect at least two Republican no votes from Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Rand Paul (R-KY).

Senate Delays Cast Doubt on CLARITY Act’s Future

Washington, D.C. – The prospects for the CLARITY Act, a pivotal piece of legislation aimed at enhancing regulatory clarity in the blockchain space, have dimmed significantly as Senate scheduling pressures mount. According to a recent analysis by Alex Thorn, Managing Director and Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, the odds of the bill becoming law by 2026 have dropped to a precarious 50-50, down from an earlier estimate of 60%.

The CLARITY Act has languished on the Senate Legislative Calendar since June 1, following its approval by the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a vote of 15-9. Despite its potential significance, no floor date has been scheduled, and the absence of a unified Banking-Agriculture text has left many lawmakers in limbo.

Thorn noted, “We are lowering our estimate that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 50-50, down from 60% on June 5.” The lack of public progress in negotiations has raised concerns among stakeholders, who are eager for clarity in the rapidly evolving blockchain landscape.

Ongoing Negotiations Amidst Uncertainty

While staff-level discussions between the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees continue, there has been no public announcement of a combined bill. Central to the ongoing negotiations are unresolved ethics provisions, particularly after Senator Chris Van Hollen’s conflict-of-interest amendment was narrowly defeated in committee. Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker are advocating for enforceable standards, while others are pushing for amendments to address illicit finance concerns.

The urgency for action is compounded by the approaching August recess, which is putting additional pressure on Senate schedules. Thorn emphasized, “A scheduling announcement in the next two weeks would likely push us back toward 60% or higher. Continued silence into mid-July would push us lower.”

Competing Legislative Priorities

The Senate’s agenda is further complicated by a standoff over housing legislation, following President Donald Trump’s declaration that he would not sign a bipartisan housing bill unless Congress also passes the SAVE Act, a controversial proof-of-citizenship elections bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that the SAVE Act lacks sufficient support to pass, adding another layer of complexity to an already crowded legislative calendar.

With the House having passed the housing bill with overwhelming support, the Senate now faces a leadership-consuming battle that could further delay the CLARITY Act. Thorn remarked, “This dispute joins a crowded agenda as lawmakers approach the scheduled August recess.”

In addition to the housing bill, Congress must also address other pressing issues, including a bipartisan proposal to restore Section 702 surveillance authorities and the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act.

Looking Ahead

As the Senate grapples with these competing priorities, the future of the CLARITY Act hangs in the balance. Thorn remains cautiously optimistic, stating that his outlook could improve if Senate committees reach a public agreement on combined legislative text and if leadership commits to floor time in July. However, he anticipates at least two Republican no votes from Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, which could further complicate the bill’s path forward.

With time running out before the August recess, stakeholders are left to wonder whether the CLARITY Act will gain the momentum it desperately needs or fade into legislative obscurity.