Assets React to Trump’s Increased Probability of Winning Election Following Assassination Attempt

The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump over the weekend has sent shockwaves through the financial markets, with assets linked to his probability of winning the upcoming elections experiencing renewed volatility.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has surged 7% to $62,500 following the attack, boosting Trump’s chances of victory to 70% on prediction market Polymarket. This rally has pushed Bitcoin above its crucial 200-day moving average, a positive sign for momentum traders.

Trump-themed Polifi tokens, which combine politics and finance, have also seen a sharp increase in value as investors bet on a Trump presidency. The former president has recently embraced crypto in an effort to win over the crypto community, which is seeking a more favorable regulatory environment.

“The biggest fundamental news over the weekend was the Trump assassination attempt. Absolutely insane. This has improved the odds of a Trump presidency. Trump being the pro-crypto president should help galvanize the cryptocurrency bids,” said Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata.

The potential impact of a Trump victory is also being felt in traditional markets, with the Chinese yuan and Mexican peso both trading lower against the U.S. dollar. Futures tied to the 10-year Treasury note have fallen, indicating expectations of higher yields as Trump’s return to the White House could lead to increased spending and tax cuts.

Despite this uncertainty, futures tied to the S&P 500 are trading higher, suggesting a positive open on Monday. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against major fiat currencies, is also up slightly.

As the world watches the fallout from the attempted assassination and its implications for the upcoming elections, investors are bracing for a period of heightened volatility across various asset classes.